Global marine fuel demand has recovered to pre-2008 levels and annual consumption will likely grow to 450 million tonnes (Mt) by 2020, according to recent estimates.
Martin Tallet from EnSys Energy has estimated global marine fuel demand in 2010 at about 370 Mt, of which heavy fuel oil (HFO) would account for 290 Mt and marine distillates 80 Mt.
Taking into account anticipated growth in world trade and the shipping fleet versus measures to improve energy efficiency in the years ahead, Tallet said a realistic growth rate of two per cent annually would push global demand up to 450 Mt by 2020.
A previous study for the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in 2009 arrived at a global marine fuel consumption consensus estimate of 333 Mt for 2007, but also gave a low and a high range of 279 and 400 Mt, respectively.
Tallet predicted that the price of distillate fuels relative to crude in the future would increase, and that the premium of low sulphur marine gas oil (MGO) to HFO would also likely increase from current levels.
Source: Sustainable Shipping News, 16 September 2010