Arctic temperature increase of 13°C
The climate in the Arctic is changing faster than in mid-latitudes, as shown by increased temperatures, loss of summer sea ice, earlier snow melt, impacts on ecosystems, and increased economic access.
NOAA-led research using climate model projections concludes that the Arctic climate will continue to show major changes over the coming decades, but that carbon emission mitigation could slow temperature changes in the second half of the century, according to “Future Arctic Climate Changes: Adaptation and Mitigation Timescales”, published by AGU’s Earth’s Future.
Climate model projections show an Arctic-wide end-of-century temperature increase of +13 degrees Celsius in late autumn and +5 degrees Celsius in late spring if the status quo continues and current emissions increase without a mitigation scenario. In contrast, the mean temperature projection would be +7 degrees Celsius in late autumn and +3 degrees Celsius in late spring by the end of the century if a mitigation scenario to reduce emissions is followed, the paper concludes.