Briefing and Factsheet

Short briefing which calculates, based on methodology developed by the London School of Economics, what the costs of action and inaction would be for several EU scenarios. The briefing finds that current policies would lead to a GDP loss of 7.11%/year by 2100, while implementing the Fit for 55 proposals would lead to an annual loss of 2.58%. Opting for a real 1.5°C compatible pathway on the other hand would lead to an increase of GDP of 0.84%. The benefits of increasing ambition are thus also important in economic terms. In particular for future generations as they will foot the bill of our inaction.

Defining 1.5°C compatible CO₂ targets and climate finance responsibilities for a range of European countries
This briefing aims to contribute to the discussion on the potential application of carbon budgets in the policy debate by identifying both emission reduction targets and climate finance responsibilities for 42 European countries based on a 1.5°C compatible global carbon budget.

This briefing highlights why the EU needs to reduce its emissions well beyond 55% in order to contribute its fair share to the global effort to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C as envisaged by the Paris Agreement.

In the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, countries engaged “to limit temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels”, as going beyond that threshold would bring dangerous and irreversible impacts. Multiple assessments have made it clear that we are currently not on track to achieve this objective and are heading towards a 2.5°C temperature rise.

Since the IPCC’s first publication of global carbon budget estimates, huge scientific progress has been made to tackle the uncertainties in the use of this concept. The latest numbers as contained in the WG I contribution to the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report are now much more robust. This briefing calculates the EU’s carbon budget under currently agreed targets and compares this to the remaining global carbon budget.

In the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries agreed to make an effort to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C as going beyond that temperature limit would bring severe negative impacts, in particular for those most vulnerable. While not explicit in the text, it is generally understood that the objective is to ensure temperature rise is limited to 1.5°C by 2100.

There are multiple arguments for why the EU'S 2030 climate target aimed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% is not compatible with the 1.5°C temperature goal of the Paris Agreement. The EU thus will need to look at how it can do more. Substantial additional action in all economic sectors and in all EU Member States is needed and possible. Even while substantial reductions - well beyond the 2020 target - have been achieved in the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), also the sectors covered by this legislation can do much more.

The main objective of this study is to assess as reliably as possible whether the emission reduction target for 2030 can be achieved or exceeded, taking into account the corresponding uncertainties. The analysis is carried out for different options for cap and Market Stability Reserve (MSR) provisions. Chapter 2 discusses a range of baseline emission trends. Chapter 3.1 discusses the current legislative proposals for adjusting the cap of the EU ETS in the context of the new emission reduction target of 55% for the total greenhouse gas emissions of the EU 27.

The aim of the 1.5°C Pathways for Europe Project is to derive Paris Agreement compatible emissions and energy mix pathways for key European countries. The project seeks to highlight existing scenarios that demonstrate that a very high level of ambition on climate and energy policy is possible for the European Union. Here are presented such possible pathways for Sweden.